AGP Executive Report

Maritime Risk: A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile off Oman, sparking a fire; the crew were safe, but damage and environmental impacts remain unclear. Economic Growth: Oman’s GDP rose 5.1% year-on-year in Q2 to RO9.9 billion, led by a 14.7% jump in petroleum activity. Non-oil growth was 0.7%, while industry contracted 1.5%. Financial Hub: The International Financial Centre of Oman plans to start company registrations this year, ahead of full licensing in 2027, as it prepares its legal framework and digital registry. Investment: Oman is courting French businesses in energy, technology, infrastructure and healthcare, while a proposed RO25.4 million partnership with Indonesia’s GMF AeroAsia would develop aircraft maintenance, training and parts manufacturing. Renewables: Naseem Dhofar is advancing a 125MW wind project near Fatkhait, complementing the existing Dhofar I farm.

Markets: The Muscat Stock Exchange led Gulf peers, gaining about 29% in the first nine months; the MSX 30 also rose 3.08% this week as trading activity strengthened. Investment: Oman signed deals worth more than $1.4 billion across tourism, housing, education and real estate, supporting its push to diversify the economy. Aviation: A RO25.4 million initiative aims to build an integrated aviation services and industries base, including aircraft maintenance, engineering and component manufacturing. Trade and energy: Oman is exploring investment with French businesses in sectors including renewables, hydrogen, transport and advanced technology. Separately, OQ Trading signed a petroleum supply agreement with Pakistan State Oil. Shipping risks: Fresh tanker attacks near Oman and across the Strait of Hormuz keep pressure on regional shipping and energy supply routes.

Energy and Shipping: Iran’s Revolutionary Guard says it struck an LPG tanker on a route near Oman’s coast in the Strait of Hormuz, warning it may pursue vessels it considers unauthorized across the region. The escalation adds risk to a vital trade route. Oman Trade: Pakistan State Oil signed an agreement with Oman’s OQ Trading on October 8 to supply petroleum products under a bilateral government arrangement. Technology: Omani startup Walkk is developing an AI platform for retail operations; its digital mapping system has reportedly cut order-fulfilment time by 50%. Investment: Oman has also signed a $1.04 billion deal for a major tourism complex in Dhofar, adding to a busy week for investment and business ties.

Energy Trade: Pakistan State Oil and Oman’s OQ Trading signed a petroleum-supply agreement on October 8, deepening cooperation under a bilateral deal. Tanker attacks and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to threaten shipping and energy costs. Tourism Links: Air Astana will launch weekly flights from Almaty and Astana to Salalah on October 23 and 24, opening new routes expected to support trade and tourism. Investment: The Muscat Stock Exchange has joined FTSE Russell’s watchlist for possible reclassification as a secondary emerging market, raising Oman’s profile with global investors. Regional Partnerships: Oman and Kazakhstan signed eight agreements during Sultan Haitham’s state visit, with both sides seeking to expand trade and investment. Economic Pulse: Oman’s trade surplus reached RO5.5 billion in July, while Omani firms signed six agreements with Bahraini counterparts to expand exports.

Energy & Shipping: Brent climbed above $104 a barrel as tanker attacks spread across Gulf waters, including near Oman, and Hormuz traffic fell sharply. Higher freight and insurance costs threaten energy exports and trade. Oman LNG: OQ Trading is targeting a 4–5 million-tonne annual LNG portfolio, with 750,000 tonnes a year from Oman LNG as its core supply and scope to expand its Omani offtake. Trade & Startups: Omani firms signed six agreements with Bahraini companies to build trade links, while Riyada reported more than 3,000 startup ideas a year, supported by 30 incubators and 10 accelerators. Investment: Oman and Kazakhstan advanced energy and investment cooperation during Sultan Haitham’s state visit, including plans for a $150 million fund. Oman also signed a $1.04 billion deal for a major Dhofar tourism complex. Economic Outlook: The World Bank expects Gulf economies to contract by an average 4.3% in 2026; Oman’s food inflation exceeded 7%, while headline inflation was around 3%.

Markets: Muscat’s index edged up 0.05% in the latest session, with OMR82.46 million in turnover. Financial Services: Oman’s International Financial Centre board reviewed steps to attract investment and international institutions as the centre builds its regulatory framework. Trade & Investment: The Sultan’s Kazakhstan visit produced investment and energy agreements, including a planned $150 million fund; Oman was also added to FTSE Russell’s watchlist. GDP grew 5.1% in Q2, while the trade surplus reached OMR5.5 billion by July. Business Development: Oman launched its 2027 logistics best-practices award, targeting innovation, efficiency and sustainability. Oman and Italy explored tourism and heritage partnerships, while a $1.04 billion Dhofar tourism complex deal adds to development activity. Regional Risks: The World Bank expects GCC economies to contract by an average 4.3% in 2026; food inflation in Oman and Bahrain exceeded 7%. Tanker attacks and a sharp fall in Hormuz traffic add uncertainty for regional trade and shipping.

Investment: Oman’s Urban, Home & Building Expo secured more than RO550 million ($1.43 billion) in agreements, led by a RO400 million tourism development deal in Dhofar. Capital Markets: FTSE Russell added Oman to its watch list for possible promotion to Secondary Emerging Market status, citing progress on market access, liquidity and investable securities. Kazakhstan Ties: Sultan Haitham’s state visit produced eight agreements, including an investment-protection pact and a joint investment vehicle; Oman also agreed to join the Eurasian Development Bank as its first Gulf shareholder. India Partnership: Oman and India reviewed trade, investment, energy and logistics cooperation, with a focus on implementing their Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. Digital Infrastructure: Ooredoo’s OFN signed a dark-fibre deal to extend a planned Gulf cable route across Iraq towards Türkiye and Europe. Trade Links: Omani firms signed six agreements with Bahraini partners to boost exports and access Gulf markets. Shipping Risks: Rising tanker attacks around Hormuz threaten the costly routes sustaining Gulf oil exports, adding uncertainty for regional trade.

Global Investment: Oman is set to become the Eurasian Development Bank’s first Gulf shareholder, opening a route to financing for infrastructure, energy and digital projects. The move follows agreements with Kazakhstan on investment protection and a joint investment vehicle, alongside plans to expand trade and use Omani ports to connect Central Asia with the Indian Ocean. Capital Markets: FTSE Russell has put Oman on its watchlist for possible promotion from Frontier to Secondary Emerging market status, while the Muscat Stock Exchange’s own watchlist inclusion marks a step toward wider global investor attention. Business Growth: Oman is promoting pharmaceutical manufacturing investment at Milan’s industry exhibition and reviewing ways to strengthen trade and investment in South Al Batinah. Earlier indicators showed GDP grew 5.1% in the second quarter and the trade surplus reached RO5.5 billion. Digital Infrastructure: Ooredoo’s connectivity arm agreed to buy fibre capacity in Iraq, supporting a planned data route linking the Gulf and Asia with Türkiye and Europe.

Oman–Kazakhstan Business Ties: His Majesty Sultan Haitham met Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana and the Oman–Kazakhstan Business Forum backed new investment links, including activation of electronic linkage between MSX and AIX for cross-market trading. Urban October 2026 Housing & Tourism Deals: Oman signed agreements worth over RO 1bn under Urban October, including RO 186.6m for Surooh housing projects (2,443 units) and an integrated Port Sultan Qaboos waterfront tourism plan with OMRAN Group. Health Insurance Digital Push: Oman’s Financial Services Authority ran the ‘Dhamani’ platform forum, citing 20m digital transactions and 92m claims processed. Agriculture Cooperation: Punjab and Oman agreed to expand cooperation in agriculture, fisheries, livestock and water, including an Oman-backed shrimp centre in Punjab and eased entry for skilled workers. Shipping & Energy Risk: Strait of Hormuz tanker attacks continued, while Gulf crude flows reportedly recovered toward pre-war levels—though at higher insurance and freight costs. Flydubai Pilot Case: Reports said the accused Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami trained in the UK and New Zealand, as investigations continue after the attempted cockpit attack.

Oman–Kazakhstan Deal Push: Sultan Haitham met Kazakhstan President Tokayev in Astana, agreeing on five agreements and 10 MoUs spanning energy, mining, transport, logistics, food security, tourism, tech/AI, and financial services; documents also cover investment protection, air services, and an Oman–Kazakhstan Business Council. Central Bank Research Focus: Oman’s Central Bank launched its inaugural Research Symposium to strengthen policy foresight and economic resilience, aiming to turn research into practical decision-making amid global growth and market shifts. Logistics Strategy Oversight: Oman’s Shura Committee reviewed progress against Logistics Strategy 2040 targets, including SOHAR Port and Freezone performance and how the logistics ecosystem can support competitiveness. Shipping Risk in Hormuz: India condemned a projectile strike on the Panama-flagged MT On Peace off Oman that injured 12 crew (11 Indians), with Oman helping evacuate and treat the injured; India called for an immediate halt to attacks on civilian shipping. Middle East Growth Hit: The World Bank cut its 2026 Middle East forecast, saying the region will contract 2.1% as the Iran war constrains energy supplies, with Gulf economies projected to fall 4.3% on average. Energy Flows Recover: Gulf oil exports (excluding Iran) rebounded to about 81% of pre-war levels in September as Saudi shipments improved, though refined fuel recovery lagged. Gulf Investment in Storage: ROX Capital launched a Gulf energy storage platform targeting utility-scale projects in the UAE and Oman, including battery and long-duration storage technologies. Aviation Security Fallout: Reports say Oman barred a flydubai co-pilot from flying over extremism concerns, while oversight failures across Oman, UAE and Israel are under scrutiny.

Oman in Sanctions Spotlight: Japan’s new vessel sanctions targeting Russia’s trade include 13 crude oil tankers registered in Oman, with firms needing permission for payments and capital transactions and a short window to unwind pre-existing contracts. Aviation Security & Oman Link: The flydubai cockpit-axe attempt involving Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami is driving fresh scrutiny after reports he was previously barred from flying for Oman Air over extremist concerns, while multiple countries probe his background. Shipping Risk for Gulf Trade: Strait of Hormuz traffic is rising, but ships face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable” threat as tanker attacks continue; crude exports topped pre-war levels on many days in September even as logistics constraints persist. Energy Deal Watch: Adnoc agreed to supply about 2m tonnes of LNG to Thailand from 2027, as Gulf disruptions push buyers to diversify, including potential Oman supply. Oman Business & Policy: Oman’s trade surplus widened to RO 5.5bn by end-July, and Oman outlined requirements for foreign spouses and children to get family joining visas. Ports Leadership: Dr. Raid Al Rubaiey is set to become CEO of SOHAR Port and Freezone from 11 October, succeeding Emile Hoogsteden.

Oman Trade & Finance: Oman’s trade surplus hit OMR5.5bn by end-July 2026, with exports rising to OMR15.9bn and imports up to OMR10.4bn; the central bank also allotted OMR19.7mn via treasury bills (91- and 182-day tenors), supporting short-term liquidity. Housing & Urban Growth: Oman kicked off the Home & Building Expo and World Habitat Day 2026 under “Urban October,” with over RO 1bn in signed housing, service and tourism project agreements. Energy & Shipping Risk: Despite tanker attacks and Hormuz tensions, Middle East crude exports (excluding Iran) reached pre-war levels on several September days, while OPEC+ kept November output steady and warned that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping routes can raise volatility. Aviation Security Shock (Oman link): Investigations into the Flydubai cockpit attack continue, with reports saying the co-pilot aimed to crash into Ben Gurion Airport; Australia is probing his past, and questions are growing over pilot screening and cross-border checks. Skills & Jobs: PDO marked graduation of 366 Omani youths under its Emdad programme, reinforcing in-country value and energy-sector hiring pipelines. Investment & Residency: Oman launched Golden Residency for foreign investors and business owners, listing six eligibility conditions tied to capital and job creation. Aviation Investment in Oman: The Civil Aviation Investment Forum highlighted opportunities around Muscat, Salalah and Sohar airports, including airport cities, logistics, free zones and advanced air mobility.

Oman Macro: Oman’s GDP grew 5.1% in Q2 (to RO9.9bn) led by a 14.7% jump in petroleum activity, while non-petroleum rose 0.7% and industrial activity fell 1.5%, according to preliminary national data. OPEC+ Energy: OPEC+ will keep oil output steady for November for a second straight month as Brent stays above $100 amid Iran-related supply risks; leaders meet again on Nov 1. Hormuz Shipping Costs: Tanker economics are getting hit hard as Strait of Hormuz disruptions force longer routes and higher war-risk premiums, with crude exports still near pre-war levels but attacks rising. Aviation Security Fallout: Israel ordered a security review of foreign flights after a Flydubai co-pilot allegedly tried to crash an Israel-bound jet; the UAE shared passenger and crew details with Israel, while Australia probes links to the suspect. Labour Market: Overseas employment clearances fell 29% year-on-year in September, with Gulf and Malaysian restrictions continuing to weigh on recruitment. Tourism Angle: A café in Al-Khasab has turned Strait of Hormuz tanker views into a social-media draw, showing how businesses are adapting to conflict-era realities.

Aviation Security & Terror Probe: A flydubai cockpit attack on an Israel-bound flight has pulled Oman into a wider international investigation after reports that Omani co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami was barred from flying over extremist concerns and that Australian authorities are probing his links to Australia, while the UAE-led probe continues to examine motives and how he evaded checks; passengers and crew helped subdue him after the captain was attacked with a crash axe, and new video shows the suspect restrained with passengers repeatedly demanding “just police.” Regional Diplomacy: As Israel weighs the incident’s implications for regional ties, Oman’s leadership is also in the spotlight with His Majesty’s state visit to Kazakhstan on Oct 5-6, including a Kazakhstan-Oman Business Forum. Energy Markets: OPEC+ agreed in principle to keep oil output targets unchanged for November, with Oman among the participating producers. Oman Business & Industry: Asyad Drydock says it completed 130 projects in the first eight months of 2026 and added 56 new international clients; Oman also invited operators to take part in a Dec 6-10 Advanced Air Mobility live demo sandbox. Shipping & Trade Risk: India says five nationals were safely shifted ashore after a Kuwait-flagged tanker was hit by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, with Oman authorities providing support.

Aviation Security Shock: UAE says Flydubai co-pilot Hamam al-Hammami, an Omani national, attacked the captain with a cockpit crash axe in an attempted “terrorist act,” after reports he had been barred from flying by Oman over extremist concerns; investigations now probe possible links and how screening failed, while passengers and crew describe tense moments as they restrained the attacker. Oman Business & Risk: The incident has put Oman–UAE aviation ties and crew vetting procedures under the spotlight, with questions now extending to how bans and background checks are shared across airlines and countries. Maritime Disruption Near Oman: UKMTO reported a crude oil tanker hit by an unidentified projectile off Oman’s coast; crew were safe and authorities are investigating. Oman Economy & Trade: Oman secured RO 97.4m in food investment projects via Invest Oman, re-exports rose 13.6% in H1 2026, and Raysut Industrial City added nine projects worth RO 6.5m. Energy Transition: Hydrom joined the Hydrogen Council, and ROX Capital launched a Gulf energy storage platform targeting UAE and Oman.

Maritime Security: A crude oil tanker was hit by an unidentified projectile about four nautical miles east of Oman; UKMTO said the crew was safe, with a small fire and no reported environmental damage, as authorities investigate. Regional Trade Risk: The Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure after multiple tanker strikes, keeping shipping and energy logistics in the spotlight for Oman-linked routes. Aviation & Security: UAE prosecutors described the Flydubai cockpit axe attack on an Israel-bound flight as a “terrorist” attempt; the co-pilot was identified as Omani national Hamam al-Hammami, with reports he was previously barred from flying over extremism concerns. Industrial Growth: Oman’s Raysut Industrial City attracted nine new projects worth RO 6.55m in H1 2026, supporting targeted sectors and continued expansion plans. Pharma Investment Push: Oman’s OPAZ will showcase pharmaceutical investment opportunities at Milan’s Pharmaceuticals Exhibition 2026, aiming to attract manufacturers and grow local production. Business Enablement: Oman updated the Oman Business Platform fee payment mechanism for services like commercial registry and agency, letting users pay a nominal fee upfront and settle remaining charges after application steps. Trade & Investment: Oman’s wholesale and retail trade activity grew in H1 2026, with re-exports rising 13.6%, while Invest Oman helped localise 12 projects worth RO 97.4m. Research Funding: Oman’s Research and Innovation Authority allocated RO 2.2m to 467 research proposals for the 2026 cycle.